Expert: waelah
- Tottenham vs Chelsea (Prediction: Chelsea or Draw & Both teams to Score)
Key Points:
- Chelsea leads the league in goals scored, with Tottenham ranking fourth.
- Both teams show defensive vulnerabilities, sitting mid-table for expected goals against (xGa), despite decent goals conceded numbers.
- Tottenham has managed just one home clean sheet (against a lackluster Everton) and only two clean sheets in their last eight matches, both against weakened Manchester City and Manchester United teams.
- Tottenham has scored in every home game this season, while Chelsea has scored in every away game. Both teams are expected to find the net.
- Chelsea has won seven of the last ten head-to-head matchups, losing only once and drawing once.
- At Tottenham Stadium, Chelsea has a dominant record, with four wins in their last five visits: LLLWL
Chelsea and Tottenham are set for an exciting matchup, with both teams firing on all cylinders in attack but showing cracks in defense. Chelsea leads the league in goals scored, while Spurs are fourth, but neither has been solid at the back. Tottenham has kept just one home clean sheet all season, while Chelsea has scored in every away game. History favors Chelsea, with seven wins in their last ten meetings and a strong record at Tottenham Stadium. Both teams are likely to score in this one, but Chelsea’s form and dominance in the rivalry give them the upper hand.
2. West Ham vs Wolves (Prediction: West Ham & Over 1.5 goals)
Key Points:
- West Ham has underperformed their xG, scoring only 18 from an expected 22, but could turn that around against Wolves' leaky defense.
- Both teams rank among the worst defensively, with West Ham having the fourth-worst record and Wolves the fifth-worst.
- West Ham created nearly 3 xG in their last game against Leicester, another weak defensive side, and are poised to capitalize this time.
- Wolves’ Matheus Cunha and Johan Larsson have been productive, combining for three goals and three assists in their last five games.
- Jarrod Bowen looked sharp for West Ham against Leicester, with 1.62 xG + xA, and should be a key player with returning teammates.
- Wolves conceded four goals to a struggling Everton attack, suggesting West Ham’s stronger offense can exploit them.
- Both teams are among the league's worst for conceding penalty area touches.
- Wolves' matches average a league-high four goals per game, promising an open contest.
West Ham vs. Wolves looks set to be an open, high-scoring game, with West Ham favored to win. Despite underperforming their expected goals (18 from 22xG), West Ham’s attack, led by a sharp Jarrod Bowen, is due for a breakout against Wolves’ fragile defense. Both teams rank near the bottom defensively, with Wolves conceding four goals to an unimpressive Everton in their last outing. Wolves' matches average the most goals in the league (four per game), adding to the expectation of an action-packed clash. With West Ham coming off a strong xG performance, they should have enough to secure the win.
3. Aston Villa vs Southampton (Prediction: Aston Villa to win by more than One Goal)
Key Points:
- Southampton has been the worst-performing team in the league this season.
- Aston Villa recently ended their winless streak after a tough schedule and should build on that momentum.
- Southampton concedes the most chances in the league, allowing nearly 3 xG per game.
- Villa has been creating close to 2 xG per game, a trend likely to continue.
- Despite some shaky home form, Villa hasn’t lost in their last 12 home games and has shown strong performances against teams like Brentford and Wolves, games likely to be similar to this.
- Southampton’s attack ranks fifth worst in xG and struggles to convert chances on top of that
- Aston Villa is unbeaten against promoted teams since Unai Emery’s appointment.
- Ollie Watkins has been in great form against promoted teams, contributing to 10 goals in his last five league games against promoted teams.
Aston Villa is well-placed to secure a convincing win against a struggling Southampton side. Southampton’s defense has been the league's worst, conceding nearly 3 xG per game, and their attack ranks among the least effective. Aston Villa, on the other hand, has found form after a tough run of games and creates nearly 2 xG per match. While their home form has been inconsistent, they haven’t lost in 12 games at Villa Park and perform well against weaker teams. With Ollie Watkins thriving against promoted sides, Villa should comfortably win by more than one goal, continuing their strong run.
Expert: mhaffar8
1. Tottenham vs Chelsea (Prediction: Chelsea & Both teams to Score)
- Tottenham 10th, with 2 wins in the last 5 games
- Chelsea 3rd, winning 3 of their last 5 games
- Chelsea is the highest scoring team in the league, at 31 goals
- Tottenham third highest scoring team with 28 goals
- Chelsea and Tottenham both tied at third best defense with 15 goals conceded
- Both teams have performed in line with their xG
- Both teams have overperformed vs their xGA by 6 goals
- Chelsea beat Tottenham in both fixtures last season (4-1 and 2-0)
- Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 7 games in all competitions
- Tottenham only won 2 of their last 7 games in all competitions (2-2-3)
- Chelsea have only lost 2 games this season, the second least
- Key players missing for Tottenham (Van De Ven, Vicario and Possibly Romero)
Tottenham sit 10th in the league, struggling for consistency with only two wins in their last five matches. Despite being the league’s third-highest scorers (28 goals), their defense has overperformed against xGA, masking vulnerabilities. Chelsea, in contrast, are third, boasting the league's best attack (31 goals) and losing just twice this season. They are unbeaten in their last seven matches and have overperformed defensively as well. Both teams share similar defensive records but differ in form, with Chelsea holding the edge. Given Tottenham's defensive challenges and Chelsea’s strong momentum, a Chelsea win with both teams scoring seems the most likely outcome.
2. Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla (Prediction: Atletico Madrid to Win & keep a Clean-sheet)
- Atletico Madrid sit in 3rd place in La Liga, only lost once since start of season
- Sevilla 11th with 6 loses
- Atletico have the strongest defense, conceding only 8 goals
- Sevilla have conceded 19 goals, the 10th best
- Atletico haven’t lost at home this season in La Liga (5-2-0)
- Atletico have the 4th highest xG at around 28 goals (overperforming by only 2 goals)
- Atletico have the lowest xGA at around 12 goals, although they overperformed by around 4 goals
- Sevilla have underperformed versus their xG by around 3 goals, scoring only 14 goals
- Sevilla haven’t won against Atletico Madrid away since 2018
- Atletico have won the last 8 games in all competitions
Atletico Madrid are in top form, winning four of their last five games, and sit third in La Liga with the league's strongest defense, conceding only eight goals and recording eight clean sheets. They also rank fourth in xG, showcasing a solid attack. Sevilla, however, have struggled with inconsistency, winning just two of their last five matches. They’ve scored only 14 goals, underperforming their xG by three, while conceding 19 goals, the 10th-worst in the league. With Atletico unbeaten at home and Sevilla’s offensive struggles, this match strongly favors Atletico, who are likely to secure a win with a clean sheet.