Expert: waelah
- Arsenal vs Everton (Arsenal to Win without Conceding)
Bet365 Odds: 1.75
Key Points:
- Arsenal has the second-best defense in the league based on xGA (16.55) and has conceded only six goals at home.
- Everton has the second-worst attack, with an xG of 17.09 but only 14 goals scored, four of which came against Wolves.
- Arsenal remains unbeaten at home with five wins and two draws, keeping clean sheets in their last two home games.
- Everton has struggled away, scoring only five goals and managing just one win. They have failed to score in their last three away matches.
Arsenal looks poised for a dominant display against an Everton side struggling on the road. Arsenal’s defense has been rock-solid, boasting the second-best xGA in the league and conceding just six goals at home. Meanwhile, Everton’s attack ranks second worst, having scored only 14 goals this season, with nearly a third of those coming in one game. Arsenal’s clean sheets in recent home games against Manchester United and Nottingham Forest highlight their defensive form. With Everton failing to score in their last three away games, Arsenal should comfortably win while keeping their opponents off the scoresheet.
2. Juventus vs Venezia – Juventus to Win without Conceding
Bet365 Odds: 1.90
Key Points:
- Juventus has the league's best defense, conceding only 10 goals with an xGA of 11.
- Venezia has only two wins this season, both at home, and have scored just five goals in away matches (xG of 7.5).
- Juventus remains unbeaten at home, conceding only five goals in eight matches.
- Juventus recently secured a big home win against Manchester City, boosting their momentum.
- Injured players are returning for Juventus, adding stability to their squad.
- Venezia’s away form is poor, with one of the league’s weakest attacking records.
Juventus is heavily favored to secure a clean-sheet victory against a struggling Venezia side. Juventus has the best defensive record in the league, conceding only 10 goals from an xGA of 11, and remains unbeaten at home, conceding just five times in eight matches. Despite some inconsistency earlier in the season, key players are returning, and the team is coming off an impressive home win against Manchester City. Venezia, on the other hand, has been woeful away from home, scoring just five goals all season from one of the league’s weakest xG totals. Juventus should dominate and keep a clean sheet. Expect a comfortable 2-0 win for the home side.
3. Barcelona vs Leganes – Barcelona to Win & Robert Lewandowski to Score
Bet365 Odds: 1.61
Key Points:
- Barcelona have arguably the best attack in Europe’s top 5 leagues this season, scoring 50 goals in 17 league games (almost 3 per game) and 19 goals in 6 home games.
- While overperforming their xG of 45, Barcelona remains the strongest attack based on underlying metrics.
- Leganes are winless away from home and rank 17th in the table, with the third-worst away attack.
- Robert Lewandowski has 16 goals in 16 games, matching his xG and averaging 1 xG per game, a world-class standard.
- Barcelona have scored 26 goals in 9 league matches against Leganes and has never lost to them
Barcelona are heavily favored to secure a comfortable win over struggling Leganes, and Robert Lewandowski is likely to find the net. Barcelona’s attack has been phenomenal, scoring 50 goals in 17 league games, including 19 in just six home matches. Their xG of 45 confirms their dominance, even if they’ve slightly over-performed. Leganes, on the other hand, are winless away from home, ranking 17th with one of the weakest away attacks in the league. Lewandowski’s numbers are world-class and he is on course for his best season in Spain. With Barcelona unbeaten against Leganes historically, this matchup heavily favors the home side.
Expert: mhaffar8
- Newcastle United vs Leicester City - Newcastle to Win or Draw and Both Teams to Score
Bet365 Odds: 1.90
Key Points:
- Leicester have conceded 30 goals, the third most in the league.
- Both teams have only won 1 of their last 4 games.
- Leicester’s away record is poor, with just 1 win (1-2-4).
- Each of Leicester’s last 5 league games has seen 3 or more goals.
- Three of Newcastle’s last 5 games have featured over 2.5 goals.
- Leicester have kept only 1 clean sheet this season.
- Both teams have overperformed their xGA by around 4 goals.
- Newcastle have won 3, drawn 1, and lost 1 in their last 5 encounters with Leicester.
- Newcastle have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 games.
Leicester’s defensive struggles continue, having conceded 30 goals this season, the third most in the league, and keeping just one clean sheet. Both sides have only managed one win in their last four matches, with Leicester’s poor away form (1-2-4) compounding their issues. Leicester’s last five league games and three of Newcastle’s last five games have seen over 2.5 goals. While Newcastle have conceded 11 goals in their last five matches, they have a strong recent record against Leicester, winning three of their last five encounters. This matchup suggests goals for both teams, with Newcastle having the edge or a potential draw.
2. Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa - Aston Villa to Win or Draw
Bet365 Odds: 1.44
Key Points:
- Both teams are tied on points with 25 each: 7 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses.
- Both teams have the same amount of wins in their last 5 games: 2 wins (2-1-2 for Aston Villa and 2-0-3 for Nottingham Forest).
- Aston Villa have scored 23 goals and conceded 23, while Nottingham Forest have scored 19 and conceded 18.
- Aston Villa have underperformed versus their xG by around 8 goals, Nottingham Forest have underperformed by only 2 goals
- Aston Villa are in good form, having won 3 games in a row in all competitions.
- In their last five head-to-head encounters, Aston Villa have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat.
Nottingham Forest have the 3rd most clean sheets in the league with 5, while Aston Villa have kept only 2 clean sheets.
Both teams are evenly matched in points, with identical records of wins, draws, and losses. However, Aston Villa come into this fixture with stronger recent form, having won three consecutive games across all competitions. They also have a favorable head-to-head record against Nottingham Forest, with 3 wins in their last 5 meetings. Despite this, Aston Villa have underperformed their xG by around 8 goals. Nottingham Forest’s solid defensive record, highlighted by 5 clean sheets this season, could make this a tightly contested match. An Aston Villa win or draw seems the most likely outcome.
3. Chelsea vs Brentford - Chelsea to Win and Over 2.5 Goals
Bet365 Odds: 1.57
Key Points:
- Chelsea are 2nd in goals scored with 34 and tied for 3rd in the fewest goals conceded with 18.
- Chelsea are the most in-form team in the league, unbeaten in their last 9 games across all competitions and having won 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Brentford have the 2nd worst away record in the league (0 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses).
- Brentford have scored the 2nd fewest goals away from home with 5 and are tied for the 5th most goals conceded away, with 14.
- Chelsea have scored 12 goals in their last 3 Premier League games.
- Chelsea have only lost 2 games this season, the second fewest in the league.
- Chelsea's record this season stands at 9 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, compared to Brentford's 7 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses.
Chelsea come into this fixture in excellent form, unbeaten in their last nine games across all competitions and winning four of their last five league matches. They are 2nd in the league for goals scored at 34 and tied for 3rd in fewest goals conceded at 18. In contrast, Brentford have struggled away from home, with the 2nd worst away record (0 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses) and only five goals scored on the road. They’ve also conceded 14 away goals, making them tied for the 5th most. With Chelsea scoring 12 goals in their last three Premier League matches, a Chelsea win with over 2.5 goals looks highly likely.
Data from Understat & FBRef